基于装置运行平稳性的石油化工安全管理策略研究

石油炼制与化工 ›› 2024, Vol. 55 ›› Issue (4): 40-46.

基于装置运行平稳性的石油化工安全管理策略研究

姜国刚^1,2,王海超^3,4,黄文萍³

1. 常州大学吴敬琏经济学院

2. 江苏能源战略研究基地

3. 常州大学商学院

4. 江苏省技术转移（常州大学）研究院

收稿日期:2023-06-05 修回日期:2023-11-18 出版日期:2024-04-12 发布日期:2024-03-26
通讯作者: 王海超 E-mail:497422568@qq.com

RESEARCH ON SAFETY MANAGEMENT STRATEGY OF PETROCHEMICAL PRODUCTION BASED ON THE STABILITY OF PLANT OPERATION

Received:2023-06-05 Revised:2023-11-18 Online:2024-04-12 Published:2024-03-26
Contact: wang HaiChao E-mail:497422568@qq.com

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 为了找出并评价石化装置支配性风险因素，实现安全生产风险源头控制和管理，满足石化装置安全生产风险控制的高效性要求，通过建立石化装置事故风险影响模型，运用决策试验与评估实验室方法（DEMATEL）从“现代事故因果连锁理论”视角分析发现人、机（物）等风险因素都受管理因素支配。进而，基于工艺稳定性、工艺稳定性修正、非计划停工3个指标建立石化装置平稳性模型，对装置运行平稳率进行追踪统计，并通过实例对该模型进行了分析和验证。结果表明：该石化装置运行平稳性模型可以量化追踪事故风险支配性因素的控制效果，可展示石化装置不同阶段下的风险特点，可作为装置事故风险预警指标和安全管理绩效指标，可提高装置的安全管理水平。

关键词: DEMATEL, 支配性事故风险, 石化装置, 安全管理, 装置平稳性

Abstract: In order to find out and evaluate the dominant risk factors of petrochemical plants, to realize the control and management of safety production risksat source, and to meet the requirements of high efficiency of safety production risk control of petrochemical plants, through establishing petrochemical plant accident risk impact model, using the method of the decision-making test and evaluation laboratory method from the perspective of "modern accident causal chain theory" , it was found that risk factors such as man, machine (thing) are controlled by management factors. Then, based onthe three indexes of process stability, process stability correction and unplanned shutdown, the model of the petrochemical plants' smoothness was established, and the stability rate of the plant was tracked and counted.The model was analyzed and verified by an example. The results showed that the stability model of petrochemical plants could quantify the control effect of the dominant factors of accident risk and show the risk characteristics of petrochemical plants at different stages.It can be used as an early warning index and safety management performance index to improve the safety management level of the petrochemical plants.

Key words: decision-making test and evaluation laboratory method, dominant accident risk factor, petrochemical plant, safety management, plant stability

姜国刚王海超黄文萍. 基于装置运行平稳性的石油化工安全管理策略研究[J]. 石油炼制与化工, 2024, 55(4): 40-46.

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