关键词: 炼油企业, CO₂排放, 多目标优化, NSGA-II, 减排路径

Abstract: To assist the petrochemical industry in formulating reasonable carbon reduction strategies and achieving low-carbon transformation, this study conducted carbon emission accounting for 21 refineries of varying scales and regions in China by combining Monte Carlo simulation with the LEAP model. The study quantified the emission reduction effects and costs of energy-saving and consumption-reduction technologies, CCUS technologies, green electricity substitution technologies, and green hydrogen substitution technologies from 2025 to 2060.Subsequently, with the dual objectives of "maximizing carbon reduction effects and minimizing reduction costs," a multi-objective optimization model for refineries was constructed. The NSGA-II algorithm was employed to solve the model, yielding the optimal carbon reduction pathway combinations and their evolution trends for refineries in different regions from 2025 to 2060.The results indicate that after introducing the corresponding optimal technology pathway combinations based on the multi-objective optimization outcomes, the carbon emissions of refineries in different regions will decline steadily from 2025 to 2060. By 2060, the overall carbon emissions reduction will exceed 40%.

Key words: refinery enterprises, CO₂ emissions, multi objective optimization, NSGA-II, emission reduction pathway